Pair #11202

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-LV

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4044

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2035256

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -7.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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