Pair #1120

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:18:02Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut but that direction is not being tested here — actually top 10 DOES imply making the cut. So KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASCH implies KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASCH.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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