Pair #11199

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-LV

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7934

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

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Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 89902

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] Stefon Diggs signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0059 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -17.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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