Pair #11197

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-LV

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11833

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 89902

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor does Denver winning the AFC West require Hill to be on the team. These are correlated at best, not logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -14.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -18.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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