Pair #11191

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-LV

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7934

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV

Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 50074

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0126 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -41.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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