Pair #11189

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 221783

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 89902

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -9.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0059 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -13.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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