Pair #11188

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-LV

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4044

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 221783

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -12.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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