Pair #11186

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-LV

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Las Vegas before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222205

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -4.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 167
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -8.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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