Pair #11185

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-LV

Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 221783

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-LV

Will Las Vegas have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Las Vegas
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2093

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Las Vegas has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -4.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue