Pair #11184

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-NE

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7490

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alec Pierce's next team is New England before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-NE

Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1496841

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If New England wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -15.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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