Pair #11182

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-NE

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13251

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is New England before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-NE

Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1496841

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -8.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -13.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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