Pair #1118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASCH

Will Adam Schenk win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 46234

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:18:02Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament requires playing all rounds, which means Adam Schenk must have made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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