Pair #11175

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-NE

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13251

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is New England before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-NE

Will New England be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5131

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 167
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -69.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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