Pair #11174

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-NE

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7490

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is New England before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE

Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 122096

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0064 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -24.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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