Pair #11173

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-NE

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 82258

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is New England before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE

Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 122096

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.48% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0057 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -25.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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