Pair #11171

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-NE

Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 122096

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-NE

Will New England have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: New England
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2986

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New England has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 8.02% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9500 + ~$0.0072 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: +3.56% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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