Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?
Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31486
YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-KC
Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1585292
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Kansas City wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the Super Bowl (could lose in playoffs), and winning the Super Bowl does not require winning the division (wild card teams can win the Super Bowl).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
74.98%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.7400
+ ~$0.0200 est. fees
Days to maturity:
179
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
+70.53%
PROFITABLE