Pair #11166

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-KC

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16346

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Kansas City before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31486

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby joining Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -56.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -60.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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