Pair #11165

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-KC

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7428

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Kansas City before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1585292

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Stefon Diggs signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Diggs to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 7.97% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600 + ~$0.0114 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: +3.55% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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