Pair #11163

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 59513

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Kansas City before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1585292

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 4.29% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700 + ~$0.0109 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -0.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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