Pair #11162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 59648

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Kansas City before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31622

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor does Denver winning the AFC West require Hill to be on the team. These are correlated at best, not logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -36.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0251 est. fees
Days to maturity: 167
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -41.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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