Pair #1116

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASCH

Will Adam Schenk lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 374

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Schenk is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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