Pair #11157

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 59513

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Kansas City before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-KC

Will Kansas City have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3868

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Tyreek Hill to sign with Denver, and Hill signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 1.88% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800 + ~$0.0115 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -2.56% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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