Pair #11154

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-KC

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7428

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Kansas City before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-KC

Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3328

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500 + ~$0.0226 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -74.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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