Pair #11152

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 168372

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31486

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN] In the NFL, a team can win the AFC Championship without winning their division (wild card teams can advance through the playoffs to win the conference). And winning the AFC West division does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -31.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0238 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: -36.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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