Pair #11151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-KC

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 624

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Kansas City before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 168372

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -30.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0084 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -35.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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