Pair #11148

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-KC

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 59513

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Kansas City before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 168372

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -15.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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