Pair #11147

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-KC

Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 168372

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-KC

Will Kansas City have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Kansas City
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3868

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Kansas City has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 6.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9500 + ~$0.0131 est. fees
Days to maturity: 207
Hurdle yield: 4.46%
Excess yield: +2.40% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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