Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASCH
Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Schenk finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASCH
Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 987
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Schenk finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. However, finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A