Pair #11133

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-TEN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Tennessee
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6680

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Tennessee before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-TEN

Will Tennessee win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Tennessee
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 62104

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tennessee wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Alec Pierce signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -3.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0021 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -7.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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