Pair #1113

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 987

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Schenk finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASCH

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Schenk make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 421

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Schenk makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z

Reasoning: If Adam Schenk finishes top 20 overall, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 20 without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue