Pair #11127

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-BUF

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 95276

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Buffalo before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-BUF

Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2112186

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Buffalo wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -17.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -21.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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