Pair #11116

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-BUF

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13868

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Buffalo before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BUF

Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Buffalo is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -71.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7700 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -75.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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