Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BUF
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 162440
YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Buffalo wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BUF
Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Buffalo
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5832
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Buffalo has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
6.65%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9500
+ ~$0.0142 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
+2.19%
PROFITABLE