Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-BAL
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 255718
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Baltimore before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-BAL
Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1308131
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Maxx Crosby signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Crosby to be on the team. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-15.12%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0600
+ ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-19.54%
BELOW HURDLE