Pair #11108

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-BAL

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 12050

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Baltimore before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-BAL

Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1308131

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baltimore wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Stefon Diggs signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Diggs to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 8.32% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600 + ~$0.0102 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: +3.90% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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