Pair #11107

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-BAL

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 14807

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Baltimore before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-BAL

Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1308131

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Baltimore wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -12.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -17.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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