Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-BAL
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 255718
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Baltimore before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BAL
Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8406
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Maxx Crosby to sign with Denver, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-23.45%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1000
+ ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-27.87%
BELOW HURDLE