Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-BAL
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 255718
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Baltimore before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-BAL
Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1132
YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-76.68%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.7200
+ ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-81.10%
BELOW HURDLE