Pair #1110

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 365

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 293771

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player can start poorly and recover), and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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