Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-BAL
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 255718
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is Baltimore before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BAL
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 77723
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN] Whether Maxx Crosby signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-28.95%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1300
+ ~$0.0079 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-33.37%
BELOW HURDLE