Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-BAL
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 77723
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BAL
Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Baltimore
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8406
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Baltimore has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
1.12%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9800
+ ~$0.0137 est. fees
Days to maturity:
207
Hurdle yield:
4.46%
Excess yield:
-3.34%
BELOW HURDLE