Pair #1109

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9746

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 365

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley leads after Round 1, he is in 1st place, which is necessarily top 10. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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