Pair #11082

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-SEA

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Seattle
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 131879

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Seattle before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SEA

Will Seattle be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Seattle
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9691

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Seattle is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -75.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -80.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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