Pair #1107

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 365

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11024

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:17:44Z

Reasoning: Top 20 overall finish and top 10 in Round 1 are independent. Neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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