Pair #11069

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-PIT

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Pittsburgh
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26921

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Pittsburgh before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-PIT

Will Pittsburgh be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Pittsburgh
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9145

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pittsburgh is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Maxx Crosby to sign there, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -57.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -62.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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