Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-SF
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6898
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alec Pierce's next team is San Francisco before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-SF
Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1707764
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Francisco wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the championship, nor does winning the championship require any specific player signing. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-12.84%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0500
+ ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity:
138
Hurdle yield:
4.42%
Excess yield:
-17.26%
BELOW HURDLE