Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-SF
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6825
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyreek Hill's next team is San Francisco before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXSB-27-SF
Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?
Series: KXSB
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 1707764
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Francisco wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN/KXSB-27-DEN] Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-10.67%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0500
+ ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity:
168
Hurdle yield:
4.44%
Excess yield:
-15.11%
BELOW HURDLE