Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-SF
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 112183
YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Maxx Crosby's next team is San Francisco before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-SF
Will San Francisco have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4025
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If San Francisco has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN/KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN] Having the best NFL regular season record does not require Maxx Crosby to sign with Denver, and Crosby signing with Denver does not guarantee the best record. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
1.07%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9900
+ ~$0.0060 est. fees
Days to maturity:
137
Hurdle yield:
4.40%
Excess yield:
-3.33%
BELOW HURDLE