Pair #11052

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-SF

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6898

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is San Francisco before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-SF

Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: San Francisco
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3374

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If San Francisco is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-07-13T07:45:27Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN/KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN] Denver making the playoffs does not require Alec Pierce to sign there, and Pierce signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -71.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -76.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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